Who doesn’t love a happy ending? Don’t be quick to assume where I’m going with this topic! From the time we were children listening to fairy tales, to now as adults, watching our favorite movies or sporting events, we long for the happy ending where the hero wins out over evil, the knight slays the dragon, the lost souls are found or our team wins the game. I’m starting to get that feeling about our industry right now.
We had an incredibly long run in our most recent hyper market that brought huge profits and daily high-fives. But historically, the bear market following these profitable runs lasts just as long. Given that the initial peak of our most recent hyper market started with a run on ammunition in March of 2020, and continued with strong sales in some categories into early 2022, we should soon be seeing an end to this long-running lull.
Given this, I wasn’t sure what the tone would be in meetings at the NASGW Expo last month. But I was pleasantly surprised to find that most vendor meetings were positive. There was little to no time dwelling on how bad the industry has been, but more time on opportunities for 2024.
New products were largely tabled during the hyper market as manufacturers were optimizing throughput on their top sellers. But we’ve been seeing a return to creativity in new product development.
All of us, manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers, have more work ahead in order to finish cleaning up old inventory, but we are getting closer to that goal. We will still be in a market where the consumer dollar has been pinched to near all-time lows. We live in an industry that relies on a healthy dollar and an economy that allows for purchases of the “wants” beyond the “needs.” Groceries, gas, clothes and kids activities still cost way more than a couple years ago. So we still need to be judicious in our inventory investment. But we should all be getting closer to a point of looking for and taking advantage of profitable opportunities that our vendors present to us.
We need to continue to look for the perfect balance of professional and personal life. My team is starting to celebrate more wins over inventory issues. I hope we’re spending more time investing in family and friends. I myself will be heading to Charleston with my wife to stay with our daughter and to celebrate the 30th birthday of our son. We haven’t done enough celebrating this year, so I’m sure this weekend will be one for lasting memories. I’m hoping you all find the time and resources to invest in your families and friends as well!
Until next month, I hope you all get to enjoy everything wonderful about autumn and have a great Thanksgiving holiday period!
Until next time,
Chris Means
NASGW Chairman